$20 per Gallon Wrap-up

I've recently finished reading $20 per Gallon by Christopher Steiner. My original 2 posts on the book can be found here and here. While the book remained relevant, my interest did wane starting from Chapter $12 onward. I think this may have been because the predictions were further into the future, and thus by nature more general. Essentially, it was mostly stuff that anyone with any environmental education would consider common sense, without any real surprises or very many interesting facts along the way. Still, for the sake of completeness, I'll summarize the remaining chapters.

Chapter $12

This chapter started with an overview of New York City's subway system, and how efficient it is as a form of public transportation. The start-up cost would be huge for every major American city to follow in NYC's footsteps, and part of the reason for NYC's density is because the city naturally evolved to be efficient at density, before the invention of the automobile. Newer American cities, by contrast, have virtually no design at all, and are essentially just haphazard sprawl (some examples given are Atlanta, Phoenix, and Houston).

Going along with the theme of city design, the author summarizes the planning of Songdo, a city in South Korea being built entirely from scratch. Seoul is hemmed in by the sea, mountain, and North Korea on all sides, so South Koreans are used to being efficient with their space as the city has expanded with no additional land to do so. Songdo (40 south of Seoul, on a man-made island in the Yellow Sea) will essentially be a super-green, super dense city designed from scratch. Lots of high rises, solar panel, greywater systems, passive heating (through floors, for even heating), etc. Very interesting stuff.

Other than that, the rest of the chapter goes on for quite some time to simply describe the phenomenon that our cities will re-emerge as cultural centers as people start moving back into them to be closer to their jobs, and the suburbs will die. And good riddance. A lot of eastern and mid-west cities (Cleveland being one of them) currently have the infrastructure to re-invigorate the downtown/inner city, potentially giving them a jump-start over newer, poorly-designed cities (or rather, cities that lack design because their sprawl was simply a result of cheap oil).

Chapter $14

This chapter was similar to the previous one, though it instead focused on small towns. It opened by describing a "ghost box," which is a term used to describe abandoned Wal-Marts (usually because a larger property was secured nearby, so the franchise simply left the old structure to build a new one). The take-home message is that "ghost boxes" will start becoming more numerous, but for a very different reason. As gas reaches prices of almost $14 per gallon, Wal-Mart's business model of utilizing cheap Chinese labor and cheap oil for long-distance transportation will no longer be relevant. Simply put, the additional cost of transportation will eventually make the whole system unprofitable, despite the cheaper labor. Hah! No more cheap junk floating around!

With large chains no longer being as profitable, smaller, local business will prosper again. The population of small towns will migrate back to the area surrounding the old Main Streets, and away from the new subdivisions on the fringes that were close to the Wal-Marts built on those outskirts. Goods will cost more, but people will also value them more. If your vacuum cleaner breaks you'll no longer just go to Wal-Mart for a new one, you'll go to the repair shop in town and get it fixed. In general people will be (forced into being) less consumerist, and goods will be of higher quality (not to mention less dangerous, as they'll be crafted in the U.S. where the environmental and safety regulations are stricter). Jobs will be lost as Wal-Marts suffer, but as manufacturing returns here new jobs will open up.

The chapter also mentions a reduction in the amount of asphalt being used. Metal roofs will replace asphalt shingles (they'll cost more initially, but they're more efficient at temperature regulation and they'll last a lot longer, not to mention a reduction in waste). Concrete will become a more attractive material for roads (it's more resistant to the frost wedging that tears up asphalt roads every winter, so it lasts longer). Finally, we'll be forced to drastically reduce the amount of garbage we throw away, because when gas reaches these prices it will simply cost too much to have as many garbage trucks driving around as we currently have. Garbage trucks average about 2.8 mpg, in case you were curious.

Chapter $16

This chapter was pretty much a no-brainer. Food will become more local because transportation costs will be so much higher. What used to be suburbs surrounding our major cities will become farmland that is much less homogenous than the millions of square miles of monoculture (corn, wheat, etc) that are the mainstays of our current agricultural system. While this isn't mentioned in the book, an increase in smaller farms will provide a lot of new jobs, as more Americans become "farmers" (or at least farm workers). The rise in local (and likely organic) foods will mean that our produce will taste better too, as it will be grown for freshness and taste instead of a long shelf-life. In northern climes, hothouses will be used to grow produce in the winter (through a combination of passive solar heating and compost underneath it, they'll stay warm enough for crops to grow even during cold nights).

The chapter mentions invasive asian carp that are harvested in the Illinois river and shipped to China, where they're a delicacy (American's don't eat them). Sushi (particularly, bluefin tuna) will also suffer, since it has to be eaten very fresh but it's often caught halfway around the world from where it's served (thanks to cheap oil).

Fertilizer is also discussed; specifically, some guy in Iowa who is in the process of setting up an outfit where nitrogen is fixed using the electricity from wind turbines to harvest Hydrogen from water (instead of natural gas), producing carbon and pollution neutral ammonia. The byproduct: medical grade oxygen. Neato! Though admittedly I'd prefer to see agriculture move toward re-invigorating the soil where crops are grown, it's probably unrealistic to expect large-scale agriculture to continue to function (and feed a growing population) without our fertilizer applications. And at least this is a clean way to produce fertilizer.

Chapter $18

Light rails for the win! This chapter tells the tale of how we were progressing very well with our railroad system until the automobile became widespread. With driving becoming increasingly expensive, and the skies being largely emptied of airplanes, light rail will make a comeback (I just wish they'd get a head start on it already). This means more federal money needs to be spent to re-build our rail infrastructure, at the expense of our road systems. Not likely to happen until people actually start driving less en-masse.

The military will also have to make a lot of changes at this point, because a lot of their machinery (the B-52 Bomber and the Abrams tank being especially big offenders) is horribly inefficient. The tank's fuel efficiency is actually measured in gallons per mile (it takes three gallons of fuel to go one mile), largely because it hasn't seen efficiency upgrades since the 1960's.

Chapter $20

At this point, the chaos resulting from rising oil prices will begin to settle down. We'll generate a lot of our electricity by harnessing waste heat from a lot of our factories, etc. (it's currently not recovered because it's cheaper to just let it go to waste). Several different types of alternative energy types are discussed, and it's clear that Steiner doesn't think much of renewables. Hydropower is reliable, but there's not much room for expansion and most environmentalists don't like it because of the habitat degradation that it causes (I'm with him on this one). Solar is useless at night supposedly (though later on he mentions that energy can be stored in batteries during the daytime and used at night). He really should have given solar more thought. He also talks about wind, geothermal, natural gas, and coal. And finally, the energy source that he's put the most stock in, nuclear.

I'll give him this much, his prediction is likely to be fairly accurate. In terms of the sheer amount of energy that can be produced, nuclear is the clear front-runner. Of course he seems to dismiss the safety issues involved with nuclear (stating that 3-mile Island was our only major meltdown, and Russia aside nuclear plants are currently running pretty safely). My problem with nuclear is that while accidents may not be common, a single accident has absolutely devastating effects. Plus the fact that as global oil supplies diminish, eventually every country is going to have to develop nuclear power plants, and this means that they'll also have access to nuclear weapons. And while we're on the subject of national security, if we think that 9/11 was bad, imagine what would happen if terrorists attacked one of our nuclear plants! Plus, you know, the whole nuclear waste issue. Again, less pollution overall, but if containment for nuclear waste fails then you've created a disaster at a site that will not be mitigated any time soon.

I guess we'll just have to see where the technology takes us. If the risks associated with nuclear can be diminished to acceptable levels then it will become a very attractive source of power. I'm just very wary because one mistake has huge consequences, and one dumbass Monday detail missed by a Homer Simpson somewhere could have catastrophic effects.

$8 per Gallon and $10 per Gallon

Yesterday I posted about the beginning of Christopher Steiner's $20 per Gallon (here is the original post). I've since finished 2 more chapters, which I'll summarize below.

Chapter $8 is titled "The Skies Will Empty," and it mostly focuses on how this price threshold will be the breaking point for many airlines. Apparently, a lot of the airlines in the U.S. haven't been doing all that great for years now, but have managed to limp along anyways. Eventually, only 2 or 3 major airlines will remain in the U.S., and the author realistically notes that this will be a massive blow to the economy, resulting in the loss of many jobs. A silver lining, however, is that certain business (the chapter opens with an introduction to the owner of an airplane scrapyard) will thrive in that environment. Another healthy dose of realism: distant parts of the country simply won't be as accessible as they once were, with plane tickets hovering around $1,000. The author predicts the people will stay closer to home, being less likely to seriously consider jobs and colleges across the country. Personally, I predict that even this consequence won't be so bad, assuming our country starts to develop the infrastructure for a light rail system. I recently watched Ken Burns' The National Parks: America's Best Idea, and if people managed to travel from the east coast to Yellowstone by train around the turn of the 20th century, then we can do that again (but with faster, more efficient trains). Sure, with fewer cars on the road the number of frivolous trips will be reduced, but certainly the empty skies won't prevent families from vacationing in other parts of the country. The author does predict, however, that mega-resorts and Las Vegas will be hit hard, but as far as I'm concerned good riddance! Especially in the case of tropical beach resorts which, quite frankly, are too numerous and too gaudy.

In Chapter $10 the author moves away from airplanes, returning to the subject of cars (the chapter is titled "The Car Diminished but Reborn"). He spends most of this chapter discussing alternative fuel sources, though interestingly enough biofuels are not mentioned at all. Hmm. Quite disappointing. Not that I support using corn-derived ethanol as a fuel, which would simply eat up more land for agriculture as we try to fuel our cars and feed ourselves and our livestock. No, crop-based biofuels are a dead end, but ALGAE PONDS are NOT!! Algae can be grown in vertical cells (saving a ton of space) in land that is marginal for agricultural production, such as in deserts or even in the ocean. And algae produces biofuel a lot more efficiently than corn! Anyways, this isn't the place to discuss algae ponds so I'll end that tangent by saying "just wait," because it will be a big deal in the coming years and I'm very surprised that Steiner didn't cover it.

Compressed air powered vehicles are discussed (they'll likely show up, but only as a short range, niche vehicle), and Hydrogen Fuel Cells are dismissed (and rightly so), as being too unrealistic due to the energy required to extract hydrogen (from petroleum no less, as Steiner points out). So what does that leave for Steiner's predicted mainstream vehicle? Electric cars. I must say, in the example presented he's got the infrastructure down (actually, it's an idea formulated by Shai Agassi, the founder of Better Place); at fueling stations near-drained batteries would simply be replaced with fully charged batteries in less than 5 minutes (because actually charging a battery would take hours), and batteries would be constantly charged at the refueling station. Onboard computers would control charging at the home, namely communicating with a central system and partitioning recharge times for people on the same block, for example, so that their transformers don't explode. These ideas are interesting starts, but ultimately I don't see this being a viable solution once everyone has an electric car. Furthermore, Steiner notes that there will be a transition period which will be very tough on the lower income members of the populace. Gas cars will be prohibitively expensive to fuel, but the initial price of electric cars will be out of the price range for many people (especially those who normally buy used cars). I must admit, this could potentially be a huge crisis, and the best solution that I can think of would be for public transportation to step up. This will also signal the beginning of the end for suburbia as well, since it will make much more economic sense for people to live in cities, closer to where they work. Hopefully, this will result in a decrease in the rate of urban (suburban) expansion and development.

Other points that were made toward the end of this chapter were that recreational vehicles (snowmobiles, dirt bikes, jet skis, and motor boats) will decline significantly. Yep, I definitely see this as a good thing! Sailboats, kayaks, canoes, and rowboats will become more popular, and hikers crosscountry skiers, and snowshoers will enjoy more tranquility without the constant buzz of ATV and snowmobile motors. Finally, the production of bioplastics will expand. This actually really blew my mind: essentially, plastic can be made from bacteria. The process wasn't explained in detail, but it sounded like by tweaking gene expression and diet, the plastics could be given different properties (shelf life, malleability, durability, etc.), much like petroleum based plastics are today. Best of all, bioplastics are completely biodegradeable! Currently, bioplastics are only used for environmentally sensitive applications where biodegradeability is a major consideration, but once the price of oil brings petroleum based plastics up to the same production price as bioplastics, the industry will boom. Honestly, the ubiquity of plastics has always been a major concern of mine, as there are certain technologies and products that simply wouldn't exist without them (the computer that I'm typing on, despite being a Macbook with an aluminum casing, still contains a fair amount of plastics in the innards that make it tick). Learning about the existence of bioplastics has alleviated my concern that with the decline in oil will come a decline in the availability of technology.

So that's where I'm at right now. I'll likely continue to summarize chapters as I read through this book, because I feel that the subject matter is of general interest to most people. While I'm already finding parts of Steiner's "visions of the future" to be flawed, overall the book offers mostly plausible, common-sense-based consequences of the decline in petroleum after the zenith of peak oil (which he asserts has already occurred in 2006, keep in mind). It's biggest value is the fact that the vast majority of Americans likely don't think about such things, so hopefully this will get their mental gears turning (and preparing).

Peak Oil and its Inevitable Effects

I just started reading $20 Per Gallon by Christopher Steiner. The book essentially describes what changes must occur as the price of oil rises (due to increasing scarcity and demand), with chapters being $2 intervals (i.e. $4 Prologue serves as an introduction, since that's currently the highest that gas has been per gallon (in certain parts of the country, in 2008), and the first chapter is titled "Chapter $6").

So far I've gotten through Chapter $6; my impressions thus far is that Steiner can be too repetitive at times, but the ideas are sound (indeed, the whole premise of the book is common sense, though most Americans are extremely reluctant to admit it). Still, the book takes an optimistic approach, arguing that once gas prices hit the $20 per gallon mark, our society will be the better for it.

One of the most shocking statements that I read so far was that evidence indicates that we've already hit peak oil, in 2006. Specifically, in the summer of 2006 oil production hit a record output of 81-82 million barrels per day, and has been on the decline since. I've heard projections that peak oil would hit between 2010 and 2020, so this came as a bit of a surprise! Part of it has to do with the fact that the price of oil went down in 2009, which the book nonchalantly attributes to the recession (makes sense).

But more than just peak oil threatens the fossil fuel age; apparently, the infrastructure (refineries, pipelines, etc.) are nearly at the breaking point, and will have to be overhauled soon if oil production is to continue as it has been. The amount of accidents occurring due to faulty/aging infrastructure is on the rise, including a major leak in BP's pipeline from Prudhoe Bay which resulted in 270,000 gallons of oil being spilled "in pristine Alaskan bush." The problem here should be obvious; overhauling the infrastructure to continue oil production which is guaranteed to steadily decline is foolish from an economic perspective. Not that drilling will stop; rather, I predict that aging infrastructure will be stretched to its limits, resulting in a decrease in safety (both for workers and the environment).

Now to move onto the first benchmark, $6 per gallon. The subtitle of this chapter is "Society Change and the Dead SUV." It details the rise of the SUV due to incredibly cheap oil prices, and notes that SUVs had fallen into disfavor during 2008 when gas prices were hovering just below $4 per gallon. Obviously when prices exceed that, smaller cars will become increasingly more popular. Most interesting was the following passage: "according to some of American automakers' own research, the type of people who tend to buy SUVs are insecure and vain. They're people who are frequently nervous about their marriage and uncomfortable about having become parents. They have little confidence in their skills as drivers.* And more than anything else, they're they're self-absorbed and narcissistic, with little interest in their communities and neighbors."

*Ironically, SUVs are incredibly unsafe, so this association tends to result in more collision-related deaths. Obviously these huge vehicles protect the drivers and passengers from injury during collisions, but their size and height makes them less maneuverable and prone to flipping over (in other words, it's more difficult for drivers of SUVs to avoid collisions). And obviously in a collision with a smaller vehicle, an SUV is more likely to cause fatalities (namely to those in the smaller vehicle). Statistics of deaths associated with certain models of cars, SUVs, and trucks back this assertion up. In summary, poor drivers tend to prefer vehicles that are more difficult to handle, exacerbating the problem.

The chapter goes on to discuss some of the benefits of gas prices reaching $6 per gallon, most of them tied to there being fewer cars on the road. Obesity may decrease as people walk and bike more (even if it's just walking to catch some form of public transportation). With fewer cars on the road, pollution and pollution-related illnesses/deaths will decrease. Police foot/bike/horse patrols will increase, resulting in the general populace feeling safer, and police officers feeling more connected and involved in their communities (research shows that the average person doesn't notice an increase in the amount of patrol cars, but when more officers are walking or biking, the public notices their presence).

Some other changes are a decrease in the distance travelled for middle and high school sporting events, as well as division II and III college teams. Schools will also be less able to provide bus transportation (school buses average about 6 miles per gallon), and maximum walking distances are already increasing in many school districts (these are distances where bus transport isn't available for students because it's close enough to walk). Hopefully with more police foot patrols, parents will feel more at ease letting their children walk longer distances to school. And finally, one other change will be in our transportation infrastructure. Right now, the US has a set gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon, regardless of the price of gas. As gas prices rise and people drive less, this means that the government gets less money to improve roads and bridges. A percentage tax would be an intuitive next step, but few politicians would support that because it would be extremely unpopular, albeit necessary (imagine trying to convince people that as gas prices rise, they'll have to pay even more with increased taxes!). Steiner predicts an increase in tolls for heavily used roads, as London and Stockholm have already implemented such systems which, though they faced opposition at first, are generally viewed as a positive change by residents of those cities. Going along with this, more roadways will likely be privatized.

Interesting start to the book. I like the structure, how the author attempts to predict what changes will occur at which dollar "thresholds" ($6, $8, $10, $12, $14, $16, $18, and $20). It will be interesting to compare what really happens (when gas prices inevitably reach these thresholds), as the author's reasoning is sound thus far.

Jaynestown

The Ballad of Jayne

Jayne, the man they call Jayne

He robbed from the rich
And he gave to the poor
Stood up to the man
And gave him what for
Our love for him now
Ain't hard to explain
The hero of Canton
The man they call Jayne

Our Jayne saw the mudders' backs breakin'
He saw the mudders' lament
And he saw the magistrate takin'
Every dollar and leavin' five cents
So he said "you can't do that to my people"
He said "you can't crush them under your heel"
So Jayne strapped on his hat
And in 5 seconds flat
Stole everythin' Boss Higgins had to steal

He robbed from the rich
And he gave to the poor
Stood up to the man
And gave him what for
Our love for him now
Ain't hard to explain
The hero of Canton
The man they call Jayne

Now here is what separates heroes
From common folk like you and I
The man they call Jayne
He turned 'round his plane
And let that money hit sky
He dropped it onto our houses
He dropped it into our yards
The man they called Jayne
He stole away our pain
And headed out for the stars

He robbed from the rich
And he gave to the poor
Stood up to the man
And gave him what for
Our love for him now
Ain't hard to explain
The hero of Canton
The man they call Jayne.

Mountaintop Removal Mining causes irreversible damage

Well, duh I should think that would be obvious. According to an article in Science Daily, a recent study in the journal Science confirms this little nugget of common sense. I'm not sure if this is the first time that MRM has been covered in Science, but hopefully it helps make the case that this destructive practice needs to end asap.

Interestingly, in the book that I recently read about the American Chestnut, it was suggested that GMO and/or backcross chestnuts (chestnuts hybridized with Chinese or Japanese chestnuts to confer resistance to the blight, and then crossed with pure American trees for several generations to dilute Asian genes-with the exception of the blight resistance genes, which provide a significant selective advantage) would make excellent candidates for reforesting old minefields. It's hitting two birds with one stone; the minefields get re-forested and the American Chestnut becomes re-established in Appalachia. There is concern, of course, that this could give coal mining corporations the false notion that the damage can be fixed. Yes, it's important to re-forest these sites and the chestnut would be a great candidate for that, but it doesn't change the fact that there's no longer a mountain there, and it certainly doesn't remove the fill or toxic chemicals from the surrounding valleys and streams.

Botanical Prophecy

I'm currently reading American Chestnut: The Life, Death, and Rebirth of a Perfect Tree by Susan Freinkel. The following quote really struck me:

The only consolation may be a common belief that began circulating when the chestnuts started to die--something Coy Lee Yeatts repeated when I visited his store. "You know," he told me, "the old-timers used to say that after a hundred years the chestnuts will come back."

The Blight was first discovered in 1904 by the chief forester, Hermann Merkel, at the New York Zoological Park (now the Bronx Zoo). By the middle of the 20th century the fungus, Cryphonectria parasitica, had reached the southern extent of the chestnut's range in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. So sometime within the next 50 years or so? And what does "come back" mean, exactly? There are a few hundred mature, decrepit trees that still cling to life, and of course there are the haunting sprouts that succumb to the deadly pathogen before they're mature. I'd like to think that it prophesizes the first step in re-establishing the chestnut into its previous niche as one of, if not the most, dominant tree in the Appalachians. I look forward to continuing this book (I'm about halfway through) and discovering what strategies are being used to "resurrect" the chestnut. What will ultimately prove to be the solution? Blight-resistant hybrids? GMO chestnuts? Biological control? Some combination, or something completely different? Or is the whole endeavor just a fool's hope?

It's odd how I've developed this emotional attachment to a tree that's been functionally extinct since before I was born. It started the first time that I saw sprouts while working in the Great Smokies. There are a couple of reasons that I can think of. One is the sheer magnitude of the tragedy (the American Chestnut was extremely important, ecologically, as I've posted about previously). It's the epitome of the destructiveness that our species is capable of, especially considering that it was completely unintentional (those importing Chinese and Japanese trees had no idea that they were bringing the blight with them as well). Indeed, the chestnut was a very important tree economically (both the nuts and wood were valuable). Many rural Appalachian residents depended on this tree for their very way of life, as the mountain slopes were unsuitable for farming (including raising feed crops). Thus, hogs were fattened with forest forage, the nuts themselves were collected and sold, and the wood was extremely versatile. But most of all, the tenacity of the surviving chestnuts (to anthropomorphise) as well as the scientific efforts being put into the species fate present an opportunity to right a great ecological wrong.

Another reason is simply seeing the sprouts that the roots send up; a futile effort. The species is extinct, and yet tangible. Seeing one makes you yearn to view a series of ridges, covered in blooming chestnuts, or to wander through a forest in late summer, collecting the nuts (and eating them along the way). And yet, that vision is utterly impossible (but the tree's right in front of me, damn it!). Even if the blight is defeated, the chestnut is unlikely to be dominant to the extant that it once was in my lifetime. I was born a century too late, and hopefully a century too early as well.

New Year's Predictions 2010

Check out this post for a review of my 2009 predictions. And for everyone who doesn't know, in college Reyan and I decided to make 10 predictions for the coming year as an alternative to doing resolutions. David joined in shortly afterward, and rumor has it that Mike will be making predictions starting this year. Soon it will be a global phenomenon (ok, maybe not, and note that that is NOT one of my predictions!).

1. I will finally buy my own car (the corollary to this prediction is that I'll finally have enough disposable income to actually afford a car).
2. This will be the year that I finally re-visit Denison's campus. I haven't been there since I graduated.
3. I will once again go backpacking somewhere in the Appalachians (still my favorite mountains).
4. I won't get sick all year. I was only sick once in 2009, and ironically it was on New Years day (got the flu, non-swine variety). I'll define "sick" as being sick enough to interfere with my day-to-day routine (assuming employment or school). So a mild cold where I'm coughing, etc. but otherwise feel fine doesn't count (though I don't even remember being mildly sick in 2009).
5. I've recently started a new D&D campaign, which is my 2nd long-term campaign. Despite the fact that the players will not always be in the same area (and indeed, I may not remain in the state for the whole year), the campaign will not die! Those of you who don't play D&D or other tabletop RPGs will likely not understand the significance of this (and those who do will likely predict that this prediction won't come true).
   
6. I'll travel somewhere unexpected, and it will be somewhere that I've never been before.
7. Someone I know will become pregnant.
8. One of my friends will meet someone famous.
9. Bex will have a year of bad luck for breaking a mirror on New Years Day.
10. A well-known movie will either be remade this year, or a remake will be announced.

Happy New Year!